Indonesia turned into a net oil importer in 2004 as domestic oil output declined sharply while domestic fuel consumption surged amid the growing economy (hence becoming more and more dependent on oil imports). Prior to 2016, the Indonesian government provided generous energy subsidies (for fuel and electricity), resulting in a deteriorating budget deficit, trade deficit, current account deficit, and pressure on the rupiah. Moreover, government spending on energy consumption limited room for government spending on productive sectors such as infrastructure and social development.

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Domestic consumption of coal in Indonesia rose 14.8 percent (y/y) to 87.43 million tons in 2015 according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. This figure is considerably higher than the government's target of 70 million tons. Adhi Wibowo, Director for Coal at the Energy Ministry, said this increase is caused by higher electricity demand in domestic industries in the second half of 2015. Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal production reached 392 million tons in full-year 2015, below the government target at 425 million tons.

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Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Indonesia mengharapkan pengiriman batubara ke India meningkat pada tahun 2016, sementara ekspor batubara ke Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) diperkirakan akan menurun lebih lanjut karena ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ini sedang mengalami perlambatan (dan RRT membatasi impor batubara dengan tingkat kalori yang lebih rendah). Adhi Wibowo, Direktur Batu Bara Kementerian ESDM, mengatakan - berlawanan dengan RRT - permintaan batubara dari India tidak turun. Selain itu, India sangat tergantung pada Indonesia untuk batubara termal.

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Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA), harga referensi batubara termal yang ditetapkan oleh Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, melemah 1,69% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 53,51 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) pada bulan Desember 2015, menyentuh level terendah baru dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai diberlakukan pada Januari 2009. Supriatna Suhala, Direktur Eksekutif Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia (APBI), mengatakan harga batubara rendah disebabkan oleh banjir pasokan global dikombinasikan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lesu.

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Meskipun musim dingin telah tiba, harga minyak dunia masih menurun. Hari ini (21/12), harga minyak mentah Brent jatuh ke level terendah sejak 2004 karena kekuatiran yang berkelanjutan tentang berlimpahnya suplai global karena Energy Information Administration melaporkan bahwa suplai minyak mentah AS naik 4,8 juta barel menjadi 490,7 juta pada minggu kedua bulan Desember, sementara tingkat produksi OPEC mencapai 31,7 juta barel per hari (bph) pada bulan November 2015. Sementara itu, permintaan minyak diperkirakan akan turun di tahun 2016. Sebagai contoh, konsumsi minyak di AS diperkirakan akan turun menjadi 1,2 juta bph tahun depan, dari 1,8 bph pada tahun 2015.

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Indonesia kemungkinan besar akan membatalkan rencananya untuk mengembangkan empat pabrik nuklir (dengan kapasitas gabungan 6 GW) pada tahun 2025. Sudirman Said, Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Indonesia, baru-baru ini mengatakan ada banyak alternatif - khususnya energi terbarukan - di Indonesia untuk memenuhi target pemerintah meningkatkan kapasitas daya sebesar 136,7 GW pada tahun 2025 dan 430 GW pada tahun 2050. Tenaga nuklir kontroversial karena risiko kesehatan, kerusakan lingkungan dan proliferasi nuklir (bila digunakan sebagai senjata). Bencana nuklir di Jepang pada tahun 2011 menyoroti risiko menggunakan tenaga nuklir.

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The coal price will have serious difficulty to rise as long as crude oil prices remain low and China's economy remains in slowdown-mode. Weak global oil prices (expected to remain below USD $40 per barrel this month) - and the strong US dollar amid looming US monetary tightening - give a bad signal to other commodities, including coal, while the world's largest energy consumer China is struggling to combat its economic slowdown implying limited global coal demand.

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Indonesia akan gagal untuk mencapai target produksi batubaranya yaitu 425 juta ton di tahun 2015 karena para penambang batubara di negara ini telah memotong produksinya kira-kira 20%. Perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batubara domestik memotong hasil produksi batubara karena harga batubara yang terus-menerus rendah yang menyebabkan arus kas negatif bagi banyak penambang. Harga batubara global telah menurun karena kelebihan suplai dan permintaan global yang melemah akibat lambannya pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Ekspor batubara Indonesia diprediksi akan jatuh menjadi di bawah 300 juta ton di 2016 karena para penambang domestik memotong volume produksi batubara karena rendahnya harga batubara. Harga referensi batubara termal pada bulan Oktober di Indonesia (ditetapkan oleh Pemerintah) jatuh 1,4% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 57,39 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) dan kini ada pada level terendah dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai ditetapkan pada Januari 2009. Sementara itu, harga batubara acuan global nyaris menyentuh level terendah dalam sembilan tahun terakhir.

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This month, our report is completed at a time when Indonesian society is celebrating Idul Fitri, the festivities that mark the end of the holy Ramadan month (the fasting month for Muslims). In fact, the holiday period started on 21 March 2025 for school-children, while society as a whole has an official national holiday from 28 March to 7 April 2025.

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Coal, a combustible sedimentary rock that is primarily composed of carbon (along with varying amounts of other elements like hydrogen, sulfur and oxygen), is a fossil fuel formed from the remains of ancient plants that were compressed (and heated) over millions of years, typically in swampy or wetland environments.

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As is widely known, coal is the most important energy source for the generation of electricity in Indonesia. Among the key reasons are that Indonesia has huge reserves of coal under its soils (hence it is relatively cheap to use coal, hence attracting plenty of private investment amid ever-growing electricity consumption in Indonesia over the past two decades) and efficient coal-fired power plant technology.

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Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.

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Currently, coal certainly ranks among the most interesting commodities. On the one hand, Indonesia expressed its commitment to reduce consumption of this dirty fossil fuel (that is especially used as raw material for the generation of electricity in power plants but also in various manufacturing industries such as the cement industry and textile industry) as the country seeks to become ‘carbon neutral’ by 2060 (although many doubt to what extent Indonesia is really committed to this ambition; after all, it has more immediate concerns such as the dozens of millions of Indonesians living below, and just above, the national poverty threshold).

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Over the past couple of months –essentially since touching a low in August 2020– global coal prices have surged. In January 2021 coal prices were at their strongest levels in almost two years (before experiencing a mild correction in February 2021).

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By revising Indonesian Government Regulation No. 23/2010, the Indonesian government plans to provide local coal miners more certainty by allowing an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders in the mining sector argue that this would considerably strengthen the nation’s investment climate, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.

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Only a few months after the Indonesian government had imposed a price cap on mandatory sales of local coal to Indonesia's state-owned electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) under the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme, the government now plans to revise this regulation. Coming Tuesday (31/07) a high-level meeting is to take place where decisions will be taken.

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Last week shareholders of Indonesia-based coal mining company Indo Tambangraya Megah decided to distribute USD $252 million in dividends to the company's shareholders, implying a nearly 100 percent dividend payout ratio of its full-year 2017 net income. The dividend payout is divided into USD $105 million worth of interim dividend (IDR 1,300 per share) and USD $147 million worth of final dividend (IDR 1,840 per share). Interim dividend was distributed on 21 November 2017, while the final dividend will be paid on 20 April 2018.

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Through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 19/2018 on the Procedures for Determining Benchmark Prices of Metal and Coal Sales as well as through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 1395 K/30/MEM/2018 on the Selling Price of Coal for the Electricity Supply for the Public Interest the Indonesian government confirmed a new set of rules in the coal mining sector, specifically regarding coal that is sold domestically under the domestic market obligation.

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