Meskipun tantangan tetap ada, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) diperkirakan naik pada tahun 2016, melebihi level 5.000 poin. Tahun lalu IHSG turun 12,13% menjadi ditutup pada 4.593,01 poin. Khususnya untuk sektor infrastruktur, perbankan, konsumsi, semen, properti dan konstruksi di Indonesia diprediksi akan memiliki kinerja yang baik tahun ini karena percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik yang didukung oleh pengeluaran pemerintah dan paket stimulus ekonomi baru-baru ini.

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Hari perdagangan terakhir tahun 2015 di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) telah berlalu dan sekarang saatnya untuk melihat kembali kinerja Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah selama tahun 2015. Tahun 2015 merupakan tahun yang hektik, ditandai dengan volatilitas tinggi karena ketidakpastian tentang waktu kenaikan tingkat suku bunga AS (yang akhirnya diputuskan oleh Federal Reserve pada bulan Desember 2015) dan perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT).

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Indeks-indeks saham di Asia Tenggara jatuh pada hari Jumat (18/12), dipimpin oleh indeks-indeks acuan di Thailand dan Indonesia. Pasar-pasar Asia ini mengikuti koreksi global yang terjadi setelah investor mempertimbangkan dampak yang mungkin terjadi dari kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve. Saham-saham di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Eropa turun pada hari Kamis dan hari Jumat, sementara harga minyak dan komoditi-komoditi lainnya terus menurun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia turun 1,92 persen menjadi 4,468.65 poin.

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Setelah reli kuat pada hari Kamis (merespon positif terhadap pengumuman Federal Reserve untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate), aset-aset Indonesia melemah pada hari Jumat (18/12) sementara kebanyakan pasar Asia turun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,20% menjadi 4.501,34 poin pada pukul 09:45 WIB, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,22% menjadi Rp 14.040 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Karena itu, saham-saham Indonesia mengikuti contoh saham-saham Amerika Serikat (AS) yang jatuh semalam.

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Saham dan rupiah Indonesia merespon sangat positif terhadap keputusan Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate yang menjadi acuan sebesar 25 basis poin pada Rabu (16/12). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) melonjak 1,62% menjadi 4.555,96 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 0,44% menjadi Rp 14.009 per dollar AS. Tidak hanya saham di Indonesia tetapi saham global juga sangat naik pada akhir dari ketidakpastian yang berkelanjutan mengenai waktu kenaikan suku bunga AS.

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Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) akhirnya memutuskan untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember (15-16 Desember) karena perbaikan yang signifikan pada kondisi pasar tenaga kerja AS (tingkat pengangguran di AS telah jatuh menjadi 5%) dan inflasi AS diproyeksikan untuk mencapai target the Fed sebesar 2% pada jangka waktu menengah. Setelah pengumuman ini saham AS melonjak. Pasar negara-negara berkembang tidak mengalami capital outflows besar-besaran setelah kenaikan ini. Indeks-indeks saham di Asia menguat tajam pada hari Kamis pagi (17/12).

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Bursa saham di Asia mengalami cuaca buruk karena para investor menarik dana dari pasar negara-negara berkembang. Pada pukul 11:25 WIB, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia telah jatuh 1,11% menjadi 4.344,69 poin, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,54% menjadi Rp 14.068 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Para investor mencari aset yang (lebih) aman haven karena Federal Reserve diperkirakan akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate (untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir satu dekade) pada pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) berikutnya (dijadwalkan pada 15-16 Desember).

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On the last trading day of the week, Indonesian stocks plunged 1.63 percent to 4,393.52 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,984 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most Asian indices were weaker as investors are bracing for - most likely - the first Fed Fund Rate hike in nearly a decade. On 15-16 December the US Federal Reserve will hold a crucial policy meeting. Tighter monetary policy in the USA leads to capital outflows from Indonesia as the country is regarded particularly vulnerable to such a move.

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Asian stock indices - including Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index which reopened after a market holiday - were mostly in red territory on Thursday (10/12) as investors are cautious ahead of the looming US interest rate hike, expected to be decided upon at the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting (15-16 December), as well as low oil prices and falling US stocks overnight. Moreover, the central bank of China allowed its yuan to depreciate further (to a near four-month low), hence resulting in the resurgence of some fears of a currency war in Asia.

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Indonesian radio broadcasting company Mahaka Radio Integra, part of the Mahaka Group, plans to acquire one radio station in Jakarta as well as two new radio stations in Medan and Makassar in 2016. Through these acquisitions the company aims to control a 30-40 percent market share in the nation's radio industry by 2017. To finance these corporate actions Mahaka Radio Integra will use part of proceeds from the initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) this month.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index/JCI) rebounded on Tuesday (11/02) after being impacted by rising Asian stock indices that followed Wall Street's positive ending on Monday (10/02) as well as higher prices of several commodities. Moreover, JP Morgan Chase & Co released a positive assessment of China's banks and stock market. Lastly, Standard & Poor’s put Indonesia's banks on a stable outlook. Combined, these factors made the IHSG rise 0.44 percent to 4,470.19 points.

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After experiencing 3 consecutive days of growth, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) weakened on the first trading day of the week after market participants engaged in profit taking. As such, and contrary to its usual performance, the index did not follow rising global indices on Friday (07/02). The IHSG fell 0.36 percent to the level of 4,450.75 points on Monday (10/02). Domestic investors recorded a net sell, while foreign investors recorded a net buy of IDR 842 billion.

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In 2013, Indonesia experienced a rough year in terms of stock trading. The world was shocked by Ben Bernanke’s speech in late May 2013 in which he hinted at an end to the Federal Reserve’s large monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program known as quantitative easing. Through this program, cheap US dollars found their way to lucrative yet riskier assets in emerging economies, including Indonesia. But when the end of the program was in sight, the market reacted by pulling billions of US dollars from emerging market bonds and equities.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the January 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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On Wednesday (05/02), several factors caused a rebound of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index/IHSG). The IHSG climbed 0.74 percent to 4,384.31 points, thus closing the gap on 4,367-4,377. These factors were strengthening indices on Wall Street after US factory orders did not decline as much as was anticipated by the market, as well as today's release of Indonesia's 5.78 percent GDP growth figure (which was slightly higher than forecasted) and which led to an appreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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An analysis of today's (04/02) performance of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) is more or less the same as yesterday's analysis. The IHSG declined 0.78 percent to 4,352.26 points as market participants engaged in profit taking amid concern about weakening stock indices in the USA and Europe after seeing the US Manufacturing PMI fall to 53.7 in January 2014, while the index of US national factory activity fell to 51.3, its lowest level since May 2013.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was again affected by profit taking after market participants saw falling indices on Wall Street and in Europe at the end of last week due to various negative sentiments including the Federal Reserve's tapering issue, slowing Chinese manufacturing and the release of several global companies' financial reports that were below expectation. Moreover, the rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate while Asian indices were down on Monday (03/02).

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The Jakarta Globe reported that Schroders Indonesia will increase its Indonesian assets by 5 to 10 percent in 2014 as the company expects the country's benchmark stock index (IHSG) to rise amid the legislative and presidential elections that are scheduled for April and July 2014. Schroders is optimistic that growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy will accelerate after the hiccup in 2013 when large capital outflows emerged amid international and domestic troubles. Indonesia's GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 5.7 percent in 2013.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) continued its upward movement on Wednesday (29/01) when it gained 1.74 percent to finish at 4,417.35. The IHSG was supported by positive American and European stock indices on the previous day and by strengthening emerging market currencies that felt the impact of higher interest rates in India and Turkey. In Indonesia, consumer, infrastructure and plantation stocks were popular as the current high rainfall is regarded as bringing a positive impact on these sectors.

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Today (27/01), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell 2.58 percent to 4,322.78 points. This sharp decline can only be explained by profit taking amid market uncertainty. As I have reported before, the IHSG is highly susceptible to profit taking when negative sentiments arise in the market. Factors that accounted for these sentiments were the continued depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate and falling Asian stock markets (that were impacted by Wall Street's negative ending last week).

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